The Boston Red Sox have agreed upon an extension with 29 year old second baseman Dustin Pedroia. The deal is said to be worth approximately $100 million over seven years, starting in 2015 when his current contract ends, and ending in 2021. His current contract was signed in December of 2008, and was for $40.5 million over six years, and included a club option for 2015. His new contract will make him the first second baseman to sign a contract worth at least $100 million.
Pedroia is a four time All-Star, including 2013, was rookie of the year in 2007, and won the American League MVP back in his second full year in 2008, where he collected 213 hits and a 6.9 WAR. He is currently hitting for a .308/.385/.422 line in 393 at bats this year, with six home runs, 57 RBI, and an .808 OPS, along with a 4.5 WAR. That WAR makes him the most valuable player on the Red Sox in 2013. Pedroia has a career batting line of .303/.371/.457, with 96 home runs and an OPS of .828. He also plays great defense at second base, with a career 10.2 dWAR according to Baseball-Reference.
Pedroia's contract comes a few months before fellow second baseman Robinson Cano of the New York Yankees is set to hit free agency, and his deal could set a precedent for a Cano deal. Cano, who is in his age-30 season, currently has a six year, $57 million contract that is in its final season, and Cano will become the most coveted second baseman in free agency this offseason. Even with Pedroia receiving an annual average of $14.286 million, don't be surprised if Cano's contract will push the $20 million mark per season, as he has been in the top five in MVP voting two out of the last three years, coming in sixth in 2011.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Monday, July 22, 2013
Trade Analysis: Matt Garza
The Texas Rangers have agreed upon a deal to acquire starting pitcher Matt Garza from the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs received a hefty return from the Rangers in the trade, receiving 3B Mike Olt, RHP C.J. Edwards, and RHP Justin Grimm, plus two players to be named later according to the Cubs' official twitter page. Garza was considered the top starting pitcher on the trade market, as he is in the middle of possibly the best season of his career with a 3.17 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The Rangers were reportedly close to a deal with Garza a few days ago, but now the deal has officially been agreed upon. Let's take a closer look at what both teams are receiving in the trade.
What The Rangers Get:
The Rangers receive starting pitcher Matt Garza in this acquisition. Garza has been having a very good season, with a 3.17 ERA, a number that would be the best of his career if the season ended today. His xFIP is at 3.85, so he should be able to continue pitching at a similar level to what he has been this year, maybe with a slight regression. A major thing to consider in this deal is that the Rangers are only receiving Matt Garza for the remainder of this season, as he is in his final year of arbitration and is due to hit free agency after the season ends. The Rangers could attempt to sign him to an extension, but it is more likely that Garza will test free agency.
Garza has a 1.5 WAR this year (according to Baseball-Reference), which would make him the third most valuable starting pitcher for the Rangers, behind Derek Holland and and Yu Darvish. His WAR would be higher than what it is now, but he has only made eleven starts due to injury. Garza has a good fastball that will sit in the low to mid 90's, hitting as high as 96, and with an average velocity of 92.8 MPH. He also has a great slider that opposing hitters are only hitting .179 against this year.
Overall, Garza will be a good number three starter for the remainder of the year for the Rangers, projected by ZiPS to have a 3.76 ERA and 0.7 WAR from here on out. The Rangers will have a good trio of starters now with Holland, Darvish, and Garza, along with young pitcher Martin Perez.
What The Cubs Get:
The Cubs are getting a pretty big haul for two months of Matt Garza, including 3B Mike Olt, RHP C.J. Edwards, and RHP Justin Grimm. Mike Olt could provide an offensive boost for the Cubs at some point this season, and Justin Grimm could step right into the major league rotation for the Cubs.
Mike Olt: Olt came into the season ranked as the 22nd best prospect in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB.com. In 354 at bats in AA during the 2012 season, Olt hit .288 with 28 home runs and a .977 OPS. He also saw some major league time, but didn't do very well. In his age 24 season in 2013 Olt moved up to AAA, where he has really struggled to this point, with a line of .213/.317/.422 in 230 at bats, along with 11 home runs and a .739 OPS. Olt still has some of the best power in the minor leagues, and a good approach at the plate. He's good defensively at third, where he isn't blocked in the organization like he was with Texas, who had Adrian Beltre as their third baseman. Olt has the potential to hit 30+ homers a year in the future, along with a decent average. He has a long swing and will strike out a good amount, but his power should make up for that. Despite his struggles this year, Olt ranks #44 in Baseball America's mid season prospect rankings, and would rank fourth in the Cubs system. Luis Valbuena has a 104 OPS+ (100 being average) for the Cubs this year, so the team should keep Olt down in AAA for the remainder of the season to work on his struggles, with a chance to be the everyday starter at third to start the 2014 season.
C.J. Edwards: At 21 years old, Edwards was the #14 prospect in the Rangers system coming into this season according to Baseball America, which is very respectable considering he was a 48th round draft pick in 2011. Edwards wasn't scouted much in high school, but the Rangers development system has done wonders for him in his time with the organization. He had a 1.48 ERA in 67 innings across rookie ball and short season A ball. This season, he has been just as good with a 1.83 ERA, along with a 11.8 K/9 rate in 93.1 IP at low-A Hickory. A very impressive stat is that he has yet to allow a home run in his 160.1 IP as a pro. Edwards has a fastball that sits 90-94, but has reached 98. He could easily add velocity to that, as he has a very projectable frame (6'2, 155 lb). He has potential for two average to above average off speed pitches in his curve and change. He has middle of the rotation upside, and could reach the majors as soon as 2015 if he continues developing like he has.
Justin Grimm: Grimm has spent most of his time this year in the Rangers major league rotation, though he has struggled heavily. He has a 6.37 ERA in 17 starts, although his xFIP of 4.25 would suggest that he has really pitched better than what his ERA leads us to believe. He doesn't overpower hitters with his fastball, with an average velocity of 91.4 this year, and that pitch generally sits in the 91-94 range. He has an above average 12-6 curve that hitters has held opposing hitters to a .245 average this year, along with a decent change and slider. With Garza no longer in the rotation, it would make sense for Grimm to immediately step in and take Garza's spot. He is only 24 years old and was ranked the fifth best prospect in the Rangers system coming into the year, so he should get every chance to work on his struggles at the major league level.
The Cubs are also receiving two players to be named later in this deal, so they are getting a total of five players for Matt Garza.
Trade Analysis
This trade looks like a pretty clear win for the Cubs, who are receiving one of the top prospects in the game with Olt, along with a possible B grade pitching prospect in Edwards, and a major league rotation option in Grimm. That is a huge package of prospects for two months of Matt Garza, and the only way this deal will work for the Rangers is if they make a deep run in the playoffs, where they are currently 1.5 games behind the Orioles for the second wild card spot, and three games behind the A's in the AL West. This deal could also improve for the Rangers if they could sign the 29 year old Garza to an extension before he hits free agency at the end of the season, which could cost them upwards of $15 million a year. The return the Cubs received for Garza could begin paying dividends to the major league club right away, with Grimm stepping into the rotation and Olt possibly taking over at third as soon as September.
Any time an organization receives two quality prospects and a young pitcher that can contribute to a major league rotation in exchange for two months of a number three starter that would be lost in free agency anyway, it counts as a win for that organization, the Cubs in this case. That doesn't mean this is a total loss for the Rangers, as their team now has a more solidified rotation that should give them a better chance for a postseason spot. Still, that was quite a large package of prospects for a two month rental, leading me to believe that the Rangers think they can sign Garza to that extension. If the Rangers don't go far into the postseason this year and don't sign Garza to a long term deal, this will be a very forgettable trade for the organization, and a memorable one for the Cubs.
I would like to take this opportunity to commend the job Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have done with the Cubs in the time since they took over in October of 2011. Epstein really knows how to build an organization and develop players well, along with getting the maximum return in his acquisitions (i.e. Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner). The front office has really set up the team to be very competitive in the NL Central in the coming years. With the return in the Garza trade, the Cubs look like they could have a formidable lineup in a few years. Let's look at their potential 2017 lineup and rotation (constructed from players already in the organization).
1 SP: Travis Wood
2 SP: Justin Grimm
3 SP: C.J. Edwards
4 SP: Jeff Samardzija
5 SP: Pierce Johnson
1) Albert Almora-CF
2) Javier Baez-2B
3) Jorge Soler-RF
4) Kris Bryant-LF
5) Mike Olt-3B
6) Anthony Rizzo-1B
7) Starlin Castro-SS
8) Wellington Castillo-C
That could end up being the strongest lineup in the division, if not the league, if all those guys reach their potential, with five guys that could easily hit over 20 home runs a year. That's pretty scary for the rest of the NL.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
What The Rangers Get:
The Rangers receive starting pitcher Matt Garza in this acquisition. Garza has been having a very good season, with a 3.17 ERA, a number that would be the best of his career if the season ended today. His xFIP is at 3.85, so he should be able to continue pitching at a similar level to what he has been this year, maybe with a slight regression. A major thing to consider in this deal is that the Rangers are only receiving Matt Garza for the remainder of this season, as he is in his final year of arbitration and is due to hit free agency after the season ends. The Rangers could attempt to sign him to an extension, but it is more likely that Garza will test free agency.
Garza has a 1.5 WAR this year (according to Baseball-Reference), which would make him the third most valuable starting pitcher for the Rangers, behind Derek Holland and and Yu Darvish. His WAR would be higher than what it is now, but he has only made eleven starts due to injury. Garza has a good fastball that will sit in the low to mid 90's, hitting as high as 96, and with an average velocity of 92.8 MPH. He also has a great slider that opposing hitters are only hitting .179 against this year.
Overall, Garza will be a good number three starter for the remainder of the year for the Rangers, projected by ZiPS to have a 3.76 ERA and 0.7 WAR from here on out. The Rangers will have a good trio of starters now with Holland, Darvish, and Garza, along with young pitcher Martin Perez.
What The Cubs Get:
The Cubs are getting a pretty big haul for two months of Matt Garza, including 3B Mike Olt, RHP C.J. Edwards, and RHP Justin Grimm. Mike Olt could provide an offensive boost for the Cubs at some point this season, and Justin Grimm could step right into the major league rotation for the Cubs.
Mike Olt: Olt came into the season ranked as the 22nd best prospect in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB.com. In 354 at bats in AA during the 2012 season, Olt hit .288 with 28 home runs and a .977 OPS. He also saw some major league time, but didn't do very well. In his age 24 season in 2013 Olt moved up to AAA, where he has really struggled to this point, with a line of .213/.317/.422 in 230 at bats, along with 11 home runs and a .739 OPS. Olt still has some of the best power in the minor leagues, and a good approach at the plate. He's good defensively at third, where he isn't blocked in the organization like he was with Texas, who had Adrian Beltre as their third baseman. Olt has the potential to hit 30+ homers a year in the future, along with a decent average. He has a long swing and will strike out a good amount, but his power should make up for that. Despite his struggles this year, Olt ranks #44 in Baseball America's mid season prospect rankings, and would rank fourth in the Cubs system. Luis Valbuena has a 104 OPS+ (100 being average) for the Cubs this year, so the team should keep Olt down in AAA for the remainder of the season to work on his struggles, with a chance to be the everyday starter at third to start the 2014 season.
C.J. Edwards: At 21 years old, Edwards was the #14 prospect in the Rangers system coming into this season according to Baseball America, which is very respectable considering he was a 48th round draft pick in 2011. Edwards wasn't scouted much in high school, but the Rangers development system has done wonders for him in his time with the organization. He had a 1.48 ERA in 67 innings across rookie ball and short season A ball. This season, he has been just as good with a 1.83 ERA, along with a 11.8 K/9 rate in 93.1 IP at low-A Hickory. A very impressive stat is that he has yet to allow a home run in his 160.1 IP as a pro. Edwards has a fastball that sits 90-94, but has reached 98. He could easily add velocity to that, as he has a very projectable frame (6'2, 155 lb). He has potential for two average to above average off speed pitches in his curve and change. He has middle of the rotation upside, and could reach the majors as soon as 2015 if he continues developing like he has.
Justin Grimm: Grimm has spent most of his time this year in the Rangers major league rotation, though he has struggled heavily. He has a 6.37 ERA in 17 starts, although his xFIP of 4.25 would suggest that he has really pitched better than what his ERA leads us to believe. He doesn't overpower hitters with his fastball, with an average velocity of 91.4 this year, and that pitch generally sits in the 91-94 range. He has an above average 12-6 curve that hitters has held opposing hitters to a .245 average this year, along with a decent change and slider. With Garza no longer in the rotation, it would make sense for Grimm to immediately step in and take Garza's spot. He is only 24 years old and was ranked the fifth best prospect in the Rangers system coming into the year, so he should get every chance to work on his struggles at the major league level.
The Cubs are also receiving two players to be named later in this deal, so they are getting a total of five players for Matt Garza.
Trade Analysis
This trade looks like a pretty clear win for the Cubs, who are receiving one of the top prospects in the game with Olt, along with a possible B grade pitching prospect in Edwards, and a major league rotation option in Grimm. That is a huge package of prospects for two months of Matt Garza, and the only way this deal will work for the Rangers is if they make a deep run in the playoffs, where they are currently 1.5 games behind the Orioles for the second wild card spot, and three games behind the A's in the AL West. This deal could also improve for the Rangers if they could sign the 29 year old Garza to an extension before he hits free agency at the end of the season, which could cost them upwards of $15 million a year. The return the Cubs received for Garza could begin paying dividends to the major league club right away, with Grimm stepping into the rotation and Olt possibly taking over at third as soon as September.
Any time an organization receives two quality prospects and a young pitcher that can contribute to a major league rotation in exchange for two months of a number three starter that would be lost in free agency anyway, it counts as a win for that organization, the Cubs in this case. That doesn't mean this is a total loss for the Rangers, as their team now has a more solidified rotation that should give them a better chance for a postseason spot. Still, that was quite a large package of prospects for a two month rental, leading me to believe that the Rangers think they can sign Garza to that extension. If the Rangers don't go far into the postseason this year and don't sign Garza to a long term deal, this will be a very forgettable trade for the organization, and a memorable one for the Cubs.
I would like to take this opportunity to commend the job Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have done with the Cubs in the time since they took over in October of 2011. Epstein really knows how to build an organization and develop players well, along with getting the maximum return in his acquisitions (i.e. Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner). The front office has really set up the team to be very competitive in the NL Central in the coming years. With the return in the Garza trade, the Cubs look like they could have a formidable lineup in a few years. Let's look at their potential 2017 lineup and rotation (constructed from players already in the organization).
1 SP: Travis Wood
2 SP: Justin Grimm
3 SP: C.J. Edwards
4 SP: Jeff Samardzija
5 SP: Pierce Johnson
1) Albert Almora-CF
2) Javier Baez-2B
3) Jorge Soler-RF
4) Kris Bryant-LF
5) Mike Olt-3B
6) Anthony Rizzo-1B
7) Starlin Castro-SS
8) Wellington Castillo-C
That could end up being the strongest lineup in the division, if not the league, if all those guys reach their potential, with five guys that could easily hit over 20 home runs a year. That's pretty scary for the rest of the NL.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
Wednesday, June 5, 2013
2013 MLB Draft Preview: My Draft Board
The 2013 MLB draft is coming up on Thursday, and just like last year, it is unclear who will be taken at the top of the draft. Also similar to last year, this year's crop of talent is considered to be relatively weak, especially when compared to the 2011 draft. However, there is some depth in this year's class, mostly in the prep ranks. There is a lot of high school catching talent that should come off the board early, as well as some depth with high school lefties. The prospects at the top of the draft are mostly college players and high school hitters. After that, we see a lot of high-risk, high-upside high school pitchers, along with some safer college players.
This is the first time I have scouted the draft to this extent and made a draft board along with it, and I approached it by reading scouting reports and watching videos from MLB.com and Keith Law, as well as any other websites that had player rankings, mock drafts, or videos of the players. From reading these reports and watching videos of the prospects, I made my own judgments on the ultimate upside of players, their floors, and what tools they do or do not have. With all that, I created a draft board of 50 players in order of how I would draft them if I were an MLB General Manager or scouting director (which I will be one day). I would also like to note that this is not a mock draft, just what I would do.
1) Mark Appel--RHP--6'5--215--College Senior
Appel, who was in contention for the first overall selection in the 2012 draft, returns as the top prospect in the 2013 draft after not signing with the Pirates, who selected him with the number eight overall pick. Appel is armed with a mid 90's fastball, along with a slider and change, which both grade as plus pitches. Some scouts say he is the most polished pitcher coming from the draft since Stephen Strasburg, and he is probably the closest player to the majors in this draft class.
2) Jonathan Gray--RHP--6'4--245--College Junior
Gray forced himself to the top of draft boards this year by displaying an upper 90's fastball that has exceeded 100 MPH, even late into games. He also has a plus-plus slider and commands his pitches well. Gray has as high an upside as Appel, but isn't as polished at this point, so he will take a little longer to reach the majors. Sources say Gray recently tested positive for Adderall in the mandatory drug test for the draft's top 200 prospects, which is a banned substance, but most believe this shouldn't have a major impact on his draft status.
3) Kris Bryant--3B--R/R--6'5--215--CJr
Bryant currently leads college baseball in home runs in 2013, with 31 homers in 215 at bats. To put that in perspective, the next highest home run total in college baseball is 18. He has the best power in the class, and has cut down on his strikeouts this year, making him better as an overall hitter. There are questions as to whether he will stay at third base (something you will hear about most amateur third baseman, shortstops, and center fielders), but his strong arm will play well in right field, where he has seen some time this year.
4) Colin Moran--3B--L/R--6'3--215--CJr
Many scouts call Moran the best overall bat in the class, as he hits for average, power, and has amazing plate discipline. As I stated above, as a college third baseman there are questions as to whether Moran will stay at the position, but he has the hands and the arm strength to stay there if he can improve his footwork. He is polished enough that he should be able to move quicker through the minors than any other hitter in this draft.
5) Kohl Stewart--RHP--6'3--190--High School
The top prep pitcher in the class, Kohl Stewart has top of the rotation potential, with a fastball that reaches the mid 90's and potential for a plus slider. He also has a curve and a change, with the curve having the potential to be an above average pitch. However, he has a commitment to play football at Texas A&M, which could drive up his bonus demands.
6) Austin Meadows--OF--L/L--6'3--200--HS
Meadows has the potential to be a five-tool talent, and may have the best shot at being that type of player out of anyone in this draft class. He has the range to handle center field, along with the speed and arm to make it in any outfield position. He makes good contact with a solid swing, but hasn't produced as much power in games as scouts would like him to. If he develops power, he has the highest upside of any player in this class.
7) Braden Shipley--RHP--6'3--190--CJr
Shipley has performed very well this year, which has shot his name up on draft boards. He generally sits 92-95 with his fastball, but has reached the 97-99 MPH range. He also has a changeup that could be a plus pitch, along with a curveball that could be an above average to plus pitch.
8) Clint Frazier--OF--R/R--6'1--190--HS
Frazier and Meadows are both from the same area in Georgia, and many scouts are split on who the better prospect is. While Meadows is more of an all around player, Frazier could have the better bat. He has tremendous bat speed with a very short swing that leads to hard contact, and that should give him the potential to have plus power.
9) D.J. Peterson--3B/1B--R/R--6'1--190--CJr
Some say that Peterson is the best overall bat in the draft this year, but he lacks the upside of other college hitters like Bryant or Moran. He generates good contact with his swing, but I question whether he will continue to have above average power in pro ball. He will almost surely end up as a first baseman in the future, with average to slightly below average range at third. He has a high floor, and shouldn't be too far from the majors, but also doesn't have a huge upside.
10) Dominic Smith--1B--L/L--6'0--195--HS
Some scouts believe that Smith has the highest offensive upside of any player in this draft. He has a great swing that can generate a lot power in the future, but hasn't overwhelmed anyone with his power so far. As a plus defender at first with a surprisingly good arm, Smith should be able to really focus on his hitting more during his time in the minors, making him a safer bet to hit than most high school players. I also am very high on high school first basemen who can hit, as they have a very good success rate in their pro careers when taken in the first round.
11) Reese McGuire--C--L/R--6'1--190--HS
McGuire is a defensive first catcher who has the best arm from behind the plate in the draft. He has incredible pop times to go along with that 70-80 arm (on the 20-80 scale), and has improved his receiving skills since last season. His bat is questionable, and doesn't have the upside of other high school catchers in this class, but he could hit for a decent-good average with moderate power. Regardless, he will remain a defensive first catcher who can really control the running game.
12) Hunter Renfroe--OF--R/R--6'1--216--CJr
Renfroe hadn't performed much during his college career entering the 2013 season, but he has become one of the best performers in the NCAA this season. The raw tools were always there, especially his great raw power and speed combination, along with an above average arm and range in the outfield. He is the toolsiest college hitter in the draft, and the only other player that can rival his overall package of talent is Austin Meadows.
13) Trey Ball--LHP--6'6--180--HS
Ball is a two-way player, being both a good pitching prospect and a good hitting prospect. At this point, there's little doubt that Ball will be selected as a pitcher, as he has a much higher upside at that position. Ball will sit in the low 90's in his starts, and has consistently hit 94 MPH. With his very projectable body, that velocity could eventually end up sitting in the mid 90's and will even have the chance to hit the upper 90's. He also has the chance to have an above average curveball in addition to that fastball. Ball has a lot of upside, but will probably need a lot of development time in the minors.
14) Ryne Stanek--RHP--6'4--190--CJr
Stanek came into the year with the potential to go in the top 3-5 picks, but command issues and problems with his delivery have caused some concerns with scouts. He also isn't striking out enough batters with the pitches that he has. Still, he has a fastball that sits 92-94 MPH and can go a little higher, with potential for a plus slider to go with that.
15) J.P. Crawford--SS--L/R--6'2--175--HS
The best shortstop in the class, Crawford will be a coveted player for most teams, especially with picks 10-20. He has an athletic body, one that could allow him to grow into more power. With his smooth swing, he could hit 10-15 homers a year in the future if he fills out his body, along with a decent average. He is a safe bet to stick at short, which is not extremely common for high school shortstops.
16) Nick Ciuffo--C--L/R--6'1--200--HS
Ciuffo is in a solid group of prep catchers this year, and is the best receiving catcher in the class. He has improved his arm to a point where he should have no trouble staying behind the plate. He displays good bat speed that will generate a lot of solidly hit balls, and could also give him above average power. Ciuffo may have the best shot at being a two-way catcher when compared to other catchers in this class, as he has the best combination of offensive and defensive abilities.
17) Chris Anderson--RHP--6'4--225--CJr
I was a little hesitant to put Anderson this high, but with his combination of size, stuff, and improved control this year, I had to put him here. Earlier in the year, Anderson was hitting 96 MPH with his fastball and paired that with a plus slider. As the year went on, he began to fade and lost some velocity on his fastball, as well as the feel for his slider. If he can regain his early season form and keep it as a pro, Anderson could be a number two starter. If he doesn't regain what he had, then there's a chance he could end up a reliever.
18) Hunter Harvey--RHP--6'3--175--HS
Harvey has a big projectable body, with a fastball that is currently sitting at 90-94 MPH, and is said to have hit 97. With his body, he could see an increase in velocity as he matures. He matches that with a potential plus curveball, but doesn't have a third pitch yet. He doesn't have a good delivery, one that limits arm speed and causes struggle with his command, but it is fixable. He is a high-risk, high-reward player, and if a player development system fixes his delivery, his body fills out (adding to his velocity), and he discovers a changeup, Harvey could be a top of the rotation pitcher.
19) Sean Manaea--LHP--6'5--235--CJr
Manaea is another player that I was hesitant to have this high. Manaea started the season with a chance to go number one overall after a brilliant season in the Cape Cod summer league. There he showed a good fastball that was up to 96 MPH, along with a great slider and good changeup. During this college season, however, Manaea has dealt with injuries and his velocity has dropped off a bit and his arsenal wasn't what is was during the Cape Cod League. Despite his stuff not being as sharp and those injury concerns, Manaea has a high upside and good floor, so teams willing to take a risk on him could get a good late first round steal.
20) Matt Krook--LHP--6'4--200--HS
Krook is a big high school lefty that possesses a fastball that sits 88-92 MPH, with a chance to add a little more velocity in the future. He also has the potential for a plus curve that has good depth and spin to it. He is mainly a two-pitch guy at this point, but he will flash a rare change at 79-80 MPH. Scouts feel he needs to work on his delivery, but I don't see too much wrong with it, personally. If he improves on his velocity a little and gets a better feel for his changeup, he could be a good 2-3 starter in the majors.
21) Marco Gonzales--LHP--6'1--185--CJr
A high floor, low upside college pitcher, Gonzales will sit in the upper 80's and occasionally hit 90-91. His main weapons are his secondary pitches, with a plus changeup and above average curveball. He has good command, and all of that combined should allow him to move through a system relatively quickly.
22) Jon Denney--C--R/R--6'2--205--HS
Denney has the look and ability to be an offensive threat behind the plate, with good raw power and the potential to hit for a good average. Out of the top three prep catchers, the other two being Reese McGuire and Nick Ciuffo, Denney has the most struggles on defense. He has an average to slightly above average arm behind the plate, but has troubles with receiving. If he improves on his catching ability, his offense gives him All-Star potential.
23) Eric Jagielo--3B--L/R--6'3--215--CJr
Jagielo has a polished bat that has led to a .388 average so far this season, but his swing can get a little long at times. He makes consistent solid contact which also leads to good power, but doesn't have the same level of ability as Bryant or Moran, and is not quite with Peterson, although he isn't far behind. He has a chance to stay at third, where he will be average defensively.
24) Rob Kaminsky--LHP--6'0--188--HS
Another high upside high school lefty, Kaminsky brings a fastball that is 92-95 that could end up a plus pitch. To pair with his fastball, Kaminsky throws a curve that could also end up as a plus pitch. He doesn't have the ideal body that scouts love to see, but he has a lot of arm speed and he displays command that should be at least average down the road.
25) Billy McKinney--OF--L/L--6'1--195
McKinney has one of the highest upsides of any hitter in this year's draft, with the chance to hit for both average and power. He has a long swing, which could lead to strikeouts in the future, but he has strong hands and good hip rotation that will lead to power. He's not much of a defender, with below average speed and not much of an arm, so he will be limited to left field for now.
26) Ian Clarkin--LHP--6'2--190--HS
Yet another high upside high school lefty, Clarkin has a fastball that he throws up to 92-93, with the chance to add a little velocity in the future. He adds a power curve that could end up as an above average or even plus pitch, along with an average change. He could be a middle of the rotation starter, with an outside chance of being a number two guy, but needs to improve on his command to get there.
27) Phil Bickford--RHP--6'4--200--HS
Bickford has really been shooting up a lot of draft boards recently, with some very impressive starts in his last few outings, including a 17 strikeout performance. He throws a fastball that can reach the mid to upper 90's with good sink, and the chance to even throw a little harder. However, he doesn't have anything special beyond that fastball, with his slider and change grading as average pitches. If he wants to be more than a power fastball kind of pitcher, then he will need to vastly improve his breaking stuff.
28) Hunter Dozier--SS/IF--R/R--6'4--220--CJr
Dozier is a big guy who has very little chance to stay at short as a pro, but he has the arm and range to translate over to third base, and should be at least average there. His real value comes with his bat, as he has been one of the best performers in the NCAA this year. He could provide above average power with a decent average to go along with that.
29) Alex Gonzalez--RHP--6'3--200--CJr
He possesses no plus pitches, but is average to above average across the board with good control and good strikeout numbers. His fastball sits at 91-94 MPH with good movement, along with a slider/cutter pitch that comes in anywhere from 84-90 MPH. He doesn't have a very high upside, but he has a very high floor, and won't take too long to make the majors, and could be selected in the middle of the first round.
30) Austin Wilson--OF--R/R--6'5--245--CJr
Wilson is a big, strong player who has a good deal of upside, but is far from a safe bet. He put up less than impressive numbers this year, especially for a player with his talent. With his size, he has a lot of raw power, but after suffering from injuries this year, he struggled to get on track offensively. Despite his lack of performance this year, his athleticism should draw teams attention, as he could hit for above average power with decent defense in a corner outfield spot.
31) Aaron Judge--OF--R/R--6'7--255--CJr
Judge is possibly the biggest guy in the draft, from a pure size standpoint. At 6 feet, 7 inches tall, Judge has huge raw power, which hasn't really shown up much in games until this season. He will probably endure some higher strikeout totals as a pro, but his power should make it at least somewhat acceptable. He is athletic and should be at least an average defender in a corner outfield spot, with an above average arm and decent range.
32) Kyle Serrano--RHP--6'0--185--HS
Serrano has the potential for two plus off speed pitches with his curve and change, with his curve being the better of the two pitches. He will sit 90-94 with his fastball, but doesn't have much projection to add more velocity in the future. He has at least number two starter upside, but is a very tough sign due to a commitment to Tennessee, where his father is the head baseball coach.
33) Devin Williams--RHP--6'3--172--HS
Williams has a projectable body with a good chance to add velocity as he matures, though he already throws with good velocity, sitting in the low 90's and hitting 93-94. He mixes in a change, which is his best off-speed pitch, along with a slider that has been improving. Williams is very raw at this point, so it is difficult to determine his ultimate upside. He could be a hard throwing righty with two good off-speed pitches, but could take four or five years to develop.
34) Carlos Salazar--RHP--6'0--200--HS
No one really has Salazar rated as highly as I do, or else I may have even rated him higher than this. Salazar possesses great arm strength that allows him to hit 97 on the gun, making his fastball a potential plus pitch. He also shows a good slurvy pitch that has great break to it, which also has the potential to be a plus pitch. He has a feel for a change as well, and I'd say that pitch has the chance to be above average. With that total package, Salazar is a high upside player that could work out of the first couple spots in a major league rotation, but he is committed to his hometown Fresno State, so could be a tough sign if he doesn't go high in the draft.
35) Tim Anderson--SS--R/R--6'1--180--Junior College
Most people have Anderson higher than I do, due to his athleticism and the strong probability of him staying at shortstop. He has plus speed with the ability to hit for average and doubles power, but not much home run power. If he can't stay at shortstop, he has the athletic ability to play centerfield, much like the move that Reds' prospect Billy Hamilton made. I have him rated this low because of the fact he plays in Junior College, and the competition is nowhere near as good as the NCAA, but the tools are there.
36) Andrew Thurman--RHP--6'3--205--CJr
There isn't much upside with Thurman, but he has very good command and control of his pitches, making him pretty polished coming out of college. He will sit 90-93 with his fastball, along a change that could be a plus pitch in the future. He is a safe pick with number three or four starter upside, as well as a high floor.
This is the first time I have scouted the draft to this extent and made a draft board along with it, and I approached it by reading scouting reports and watching videos from MLB.com and Keith Law, as well as any other websites that had player rankings, mock drafts, or videos of the players. From reading these reports and watching videos of the prospects, I made my own judgments on the ultimate upside of players, their floors, and what tools they do or do not have. With all that, I created a draft board of 50 players in order of how I would draft them if I were an MLB General Manager or scouting director (which I will be one day). I would also like to note that this is not a mock draft, just what I would do.
1) Mark Appel--RHP--6'5--215--College Senior
Appel, who was in contention for the first overall selection in the 2012 draft, returns as the top prospect in the 2013 draft after not signing with the Pirates, who selected him with the number eight overall pick. Appel is armed with a mid 90's fastball, along with a slider and change, which both grade as plus pitches. Some scouts say he is the most polished pitcher coming from the draft since Stephen Strasburg, and he is probably the closest player to the majors in this draft class.
2) Jonathan Gray--RHP--6'4--245--College Junior
Gray forced himself to the top of draft boards this year by displaying an upper 90's fastball that has exceeded 100 MPH, even late into games. He also has a plus-plus slider and commands his pitches well. Gray has as high an upside as Appel, but isn't as polished at this point, so he will take a little longer to reach the majors. Sources say Gray recently tested positive for Adderall in the mandatory drug test for the draft's top 200 prospects, which is a banned substance, but most believe this shouldn't have a major impact on his draft status.
3) Kris Bryant--3B--R/R--6'5--215--CJr
Bryant currently leads college baseball in home runs in 2013, with 31 homers in 215 at bats. To put that in perspective, the next highest home run total in college baseball is 18. He has the best power in the class, and has cut down on his strikeouts this year, making him better as an overall hitter. There are questions as to whether he will stay at third base (something you will hear about most amateur third baseman, shortstops, and center fielders), but his strong arm will play well in right field, where he has seen some time this year.
4) Colin Moran--3B--L/R--6'3--215--CJr
Many scouts call Moran the best overall bat in the class, as he hits for average, power, and has amazing plate discipline. As I stated above, as a college third baseman there are questions as to whether Moran will stay at the position, but he has the hands and the arm strength to stay there if he can improve his footwork. He is polished enough that he should be able to move quicker through the minors than any other hitter in this draft.
5) Kohl Stewart--RHP--6'3--190--High School
The top prep pitcher in the class, Kohl Stewart has top of the rotation potential, with a fastball that reaches the mid 90's and potential for a plus slider. He also has a curve and a change, with the curve having the potential to be an above average pitch. However, he has a commitment to play football at Texas A&M, which could drive up his bonus demands.
6) Austin Meadows--OF--L/L--6'3--200--HS
Meadows has the potential to be a five-tool talent, and may have the best shot at being that type of player out of anyone in this draft class. He has the range to handle center field, along with the speed and arm to make it in any outfield position. He makes good contact with a solid swing, but hasn't produced as much power in games as scouts would like him to. If he develops power, he has the highest upside of any player in this class.
7) Braden Shipley--RHP--6'3--190--CJr
Shipley has performed very well this year, which has shot his name up on draft boards. He generally sits 92-95 with his fastball, but has reached the 97-99 MPH range. He also has a changeup that could be a plus pitch, along with a curveball that could be an above average to plus pitch.
8) Clint Frazier--OF--R/R--6'1--190--HS
Frazier and Meadows are both from the same area in Georgia, and many scouts are split on who the better prospect is. While Meadows is more of an all around player, Frazier could have the better bat. He has tremendous bat speed with a very short swing that leads to hard contact, and that should give him the potential to have plus power.
9) D.J. Peterson--3B/1B--R/R--6'1--190--CJr
Some say that Peterson is the best overall bat in the draft this year, but he lacks the upside of other college hitters like Bryant or Moran. He generates good contact with his swing, but I question whether he will continue to have above average power in pro ball. He will almost surely end up as a first baseman in the future, with average to slightly below average range at third. He has a high floor, and shouldn't be too far from the majors, but also doesn't have a huge upside.
10) Dominic Smith--1B--L/L--6'0--195--HS
Some scouts believe that Smith has the highest offensive upside of any player in this draft. He has a great swing that can generate a lot power in the future, but hasn't overwhelmed anyone with his power so far. As a plus defender at first with a surprisingly good arm, Smith should be able to really focus on his hitting more during his time in the minors, making him a safer bet to hit than most high school players. I also am very high on high school first basemen who can hit, as they have a very good success rate in their pro careers when taken in the first round.
11) Reese McGuire--C--L/R--6'1--190--HS
McGuire is a defensive first catcher who has the best arm from behind the plate in the draft. He has incredible pop times to go along with that 70-80 arm (on the 20-80 scale), and has improved his receiving skills since last season. His bat is questionable, and doesn't have the upside of other high school catchers in this class, but he could hit for a decent-good average with moderate power. Regardless, he will remain a defensive first catcher who can really control the running game.
12) Hunter Renfroe--OF--R/R--6'1--216--CJr
Renfroe hadn't performed much during his college career entering the 2013 season, but he has become one of the best performers in the NCAA this season. The raw tools were always there, especially his great raw power and speed combination, along with an above average arm and range in the outfield. He is the toolsiest college hitter in the draft, and the only other player that can rival his overall package of talent is Austin Meadows.
13) Trey Ball--LHP--6'6--180--HS
Ball is a two-way player, being both a good pitching prospect and a good hitting prospect. At this point, there's little doubt that Ball will be selected as a pitcher, as he has a much higher upside at that position. Ball will sit in the low 90's in his starts, and has consistently hit 94 MPH. With his very projectable body, that velocity could eventually end up sitting in the mid 90's and will even have the chance to hit the upper 90's. He also has the chance to have an above average curveball in addition to that fastball. Ball has a lot of upside, but will probably need a lot of development time in the minors.
14) Ryne Stanek--RHP--6'4--190--CJr
Stanek came into the year with the potential to go in the top 3-5 picks, but command issues and problems with his delivery have caused some concerns with scouts. He also isn't striking out enough batters with the pitches that he has. Still, he has a fastball that sits 92-94 MPH and can go a little higher, with potential for a plus slider to go with that.
15) J.P. Crawford--SS--L/R--6'2--175--HS
The best shortstop in the class, Crawford will be a coveted player for most teams, especially with picks 10-20. He has an athletic body, one that could allow him to grow into more power. With his smooth swing, he could hit 10-15 homers a year in the future if he fills out his body, along with a decent average. He is a safe bet to stick at short, which is not extremely common for high school shortstops.
16) Nick Ciuffo--C--L/R--6'1--200--HS
Ciuffo is in a solid group of prep catchers this year, and is the best receiving catcher in the class. He has improved his arm to a point where he should have no trouble staying behind the plate. He displays good bat speed that will generate a lot of solidly hit balls, and could also give him above average power. Ciuffo may have the best shot at being a two-way catcher when compared to other catchers in this class, as he has the best combination of offensive and defensive abilities.
17) Chris Anderson--RHP--6'4--225--CJr
I was a little hesitant to put Anderson this high, but with his combination of size, stuff, and improved control this year, I had to put him here. Earlier in the year, Anderson was hitting 96 MPH with his fastball and paired that with a plus slider. As the year went on, he began to fade and lost some velocity on his fastball, as well as the feel for his slider. If he can regain his early season form and keep it as a pro, Anderson could be a number two starter. If he doesn't regain what he had, then there's a chance he could end up a reliever.
18) Hunter Harvey--RHP--6'3--175--HS
Harvey has a big projectable body, with a fastball that is currently sitting at 90-94 MPH, and is said to have hit 97. With his body, he could see an increase in velocity as he matures. He matches that with a potential plus curveball, but doesn't have a third pitch yet. He doesn't have a good delivery, one that limits arm speed and causes struggle with his command, but it is fixable. He is a high-risk, high-reward player, and if a player development system fixes his delivery, his body fills out (adding to his velocity), and he discovers a changeup, Harvey could be a top of the rotation pitcher.
19) Sean Manaea--LHP--6'5--235--CJr
Manaea is another player that I was hesitant to have this high. Manaea started the season with a chance to go number one overall after a brilliant season in the Cape Cod summer league. There he showed a good fastball that was up to 96 MPH, along with a great slider and good changeup. During this college season, however, Manaea has dealt with injuries and his velocity has dropped off a bit and his arsenal wasn't what is was during the Cape Cod League. Despite his stuff not being as sharp and those injury concerns, Manaea has a high upside and good floor, so teams willing to take a risk on him could get a good late first round steal.
20) Matt Krook--LHP--6'4--200--HS
Krook is a big high school lefty that possesses a fastball that sits 88-92 MPH, with a chance to add a little more velocity in the future. He also has the potential for a plus curve that has good depth and spin to it. He is mainly a two-pitch guy at this point, but he will flash a rare change at 79-80 MPH. Scouts feel he needs to work on his delivery, but I don't see too much wrong with it, personally. If he improves on his velocity a little and gets a better feel for his changeup, he could be a good 2-3 starter in the majors.
21) Marco Gonzales--LHP--6'1--185--CJr
A high floor, low upside college pitcher, Gonzales will sit in the upper 80's and occasionally hit 90-91. His main weapons are his secondary pitches, with a plus changeup and above average curveball. He has good command, and all of that combined should allow him to move through a system relatively quickly.
22) Jon Denney--C--R/R--6'2--205--HS
Denney has the look and ability to be an offensive threat behind the plate, with good raw power and the potential to hit for a good average. Out of the top three prep catchers, the other two being Reese McGuire and Nick Ciuffo, Denney has the most struggles on defense. He has an average to slightly above average arm behind the plate, but has troubles with receiving. If he improves on his catching ability, his offense gives him All-Star potential.
23) Eric Jagielo--3B--L/R--6'3--215--CJr
Jagielo has a polished bat that has led to a .388 average so far this season, but his swing can get a little long at times. He makes consistent solid contact which also leads to good power, but doesn't have the same level of ability as Bryant or Moran, and is not quite with Peterson, although he isn't far behind. He has a chance to stay at third, where he will be average defensively.
24) Rob Kaminsky--LHP--6'0--188--HS
Another high upside high school lefty, Kaminsky brings a fastball that is 92-95 that could end up a plus pitch. To pair with his fastball, Kaminsky throws a curve that could also end up as a plus pitch. He doesn't have the ideal body that scouts love to see, but he has a lot of arm speed and he displays command that should be at least average down the road.
25) Billy McKinney--OF--L/L--6'1--195
McKinney has one of the highest upsides of any hitter in this year's draft, with the chance to hit for both average and power. He has a long swing, which could lead to strikeouts in the future, but he has strong hands and good hip rotation that will lead to power. He's not much of a defender, with below average speed and not much of an arm, so he will be limited to left field for now.
26) Ian Clarkin--LHP--6'2--190--HS
Yet another high upside high school lefty, Clarkin has a fastball that he throws up to 92-93, with the chance to add a little velocity in the future. He adds a power curve that could end up as an above average or even plus pitch, along with an average change. He could be a middle of the rotation starter, with an outside chance of being a number two guy, but needs to improve on his command to get there.
27) Phil Bickford--RHP--6'4--200--HS
Bickford has really been shooting up a lot of draft boards recently, with some very impressive starts in his last few outings, including a 17 strikeout performance. He throws a fastball that can reach the mid to upper 90's with good sink, and the chance to even throw a little harder. However, he doesn't have anything special beyond that fastball, with his slider and change grading as average pitches. If he wants to be more than a power fastball kind of pitcher, then he will need to vastly improve his breaking stuff.
28) Hunter Dozier--SS/IF--R/R--6'4--220--CJr
Dozier is a big guy who has very little chance to stay at short as a pro, but he has the arm and range to translate over to third base, and should be at least average there. His real value comes with his bat, as he has been one of the best performers in the NCAA this year. He could provide above average power with a decent average to go along with that.
29) Alex Gonzalez--RHP--6'3--200--CJr
He possesses no plus pitches, but is average to above average across the board with good control and good strikeout numbers. His fastball sits at 91-94 MPH with good movement, along with a slider/cutter pitch that comes in anywhere from 84-90 MPH. He doesn't have a very high upside, but he has a very high floor, and won't take too long to make the majors, and could be selected in the middle of the first round.
30) Austin Wilson--OF--R/R--6'5--245--CJr
Wilson is a big, strong player who has a good deal of upside, but is far from a safe bet. He put up less than impressive numbers this year, especially for a player with his talent. With his size, he has a lot of raw power, but after suffering from injuries this year, he struggled to get on track offensively. Despite his lack of performance this year, his athleticism should draw teams attention, as he could hit for above average power with decent defense in a corner outfield spot.
31) Aaron Judge--OF--R/R--6'7--255--CJr
Judge is possibly the biggest guy in the draft, from a pure size standpoint. At 6 feet, 7 inches tall, Judge has huge raw power, which hasn't really shown up much in games until this season. He will probably endure some higher strikeout totals as a pro, but his power should make it at least somewhat acceptable. He is athletic and should be at least an average defender in a corner outfield spot, with an above average arm and decent range.
32) Kyle Serrano--RHP--6'0--185--HS
Serrano has the potential for two plus off speed pitches with his curve and change, with his curve being the better of the two pitches. He will sit 90-94 with his fastball, but doesn't have much projection to add more velocity in the future. He has at least number two starter upside, but is a very tough sign due to a commitment to Tennessee, where his father is the head baseball coach.
Williams has a projectable body with a good chance to add velocity as he matures, though he already throws with good velocity, sitting in the low 90's and hitting 93-94. He mixes in a change, which is his best off-speed pitch, along with a slider that has been improving. Williams is very raw at this point, so it is difficult to determine his ultimate upside. He could be a hard throwing righty with two good off-speed pitches, but could take four or five years to develop.
34) Carlos Salazar--RHP--6'0--200--HS
No one really has Salazar rated as highly as I do, or else I may have even rated him higher than this. Salazar possesses great arm strength that allows him to hit 97 on the gun, making his fastball a potential plus pitch. He also shows a good slurvy pitch that has great break to it, which also has the potential to be a plus pitch. He has a feel for a change as well, and I'd say that pitch has the chance to be above average. With that total package, Salazar is a high upside player that could work out of the first couple spots in a major league rotation, but he is committed to his hometown Fresno State, so could be a tough sign if he doesn't go high in the draft.
35) Tim Anderson--SS--R/R--6'1--180--Junior College
Most people have Anderson higher than I do, due to his athleticism and the strong probability of him staying at shortstop. He has plus speed with the ability to hit for average and doubles power, but not much home run power. If he can't stay at shortstop, he has the athletic ability to play centerfield, much like the move that Reds' prospect Billy Hamilton made. I have him rated this low because of the fact he plays in Junior College, and the competition is nowhere near as good as the NCAA, but the tools are there.
36) Andrew Thurman--RHP--6'3--205--CJr
There isn't much upside with Thurman, but he has very good command and control of his pitches, making him pretty polished coming out of college. He will sit 90-93 with his fastball, along a change that could be a plus pitch in the future. He is a safe pick with number three or four starter upside, as well as a high floor.
37) Travis Demerritte--SS/3B--R/R--6'1--195--HS
Demerritte played a lot of shortstop in high school, but he will no doubt end up a third baseman as a pro player. He has great bat speed that gives him the potential to hit for plus power that will profile well at third base. He may not hit for a high average, but the power could make up for that. He has an athletic body as well, and his arm should work well at the hot corner.
38) Dustin Peterson--SS--R/R--6'2--185--HS
The younger brother of D.J. Peterson (#9 on this list), Dustin Peterson is another high school shortstop that will probably end up playing another position, and in his case it will most likely be second base. He has an average arm and range, which profile better at second than they do at third. Peterson's main asset is his bat, which has good power due to good hip rotation, and could produce 20+ homers as a pro. His short swing and good bat speed also generate solid contact consistently, and that could allow him to hit for a good average as well.
39) Josh Hart--OF--L/L--5'11--172--HS
Hart is a great athlete who could have plus speed that should give him good range in center, along with a good glove. He will be a threat on the base paths with his speed, displaying a good ability to swipe bases in high school. He will never hit for power, but may put up a decent average. His value will be with his speed and defense, and he really reminds me of Michael Bourn.
40) Phil Ervin--OF--R/R--5'11--190--CJr
Ervin is high on a lot of peoples' boards, but he isn't really spectacular as a hitter. He won the Cape Cod summer league's MVP award, after being a great power-speed player. He has plus speed, which should allow him to have a chance in center, but some see him as a future left fielder. He will get some loft on the ball with his swing, but there really isn't much power projection in his body. He doesn't have much of an upside as a hitter, but could be a decent power-speed player.
41) Cody Reed--LHP--6'5--220--JC
When he was in high school, Reed wasn't much of a prospect, as he was hitting only 84 MPH on the radar with a fringy slider. In his first two seasons at JuCo, he has increased his velocity drastically, now hitting as high as 94. He has also improved his slider, and has shown the ability to command his pitches, as well as miss bats with them. If he continues these improvements, Reed has a high upside.
42) Ryan Boldt--OF--L/R--6'1--190--HS
Boldt probably won't have any plus tools as a pro, but he could be above average with multiple tools. He is a very raw player that will take a long time to develop, but he has the ability to hit for a good average while playing a good centerfield. Boldt doesn't have much power projection in his swing or his body frame, but his batting average and defense in center can make up for that.
43) Jonathan Crawford--RHP--6'1--205--CJr
Crawford was higher on a lot of draft boards coming into the season, with the potential for a plus fastball and plus slider, but didn't have the junior season that many thought he would have. He still has a fastball that touches 96 and a hard slider, but his change doesn't have enough separation in velocity with his fastball. He also struggles a little with his control and command, and didn't miss many bats this spring. He has a higher upside than most college pitchers this low, but he will need to refine his command and changeup if he wants to reach his number two starter ceiling.
44) Jacob Brentz--LHP--6'2--195--HS
Brentz has a plus fastball that has hit the upper 90's this year, and that was sitting in the 91-95 range during a showcase in April. He also has the chance to have an above average changeup, but is basically a one pitch guy at this point, with his curveball being at best an average pitch. He has good command, but will be a project who needs to develop his offspeed pitches in order to reach his 2-3 starter upside.
45) Robert Tyler--RHP--6'3--196--HS
I have Tyler ranked higher than others do, as he has a projectable body with a fastball that can already reach 94 MPH with good movement. He has a hard curve that has been inconsistent, but also that has the chance to be a plus pitch in the future. He also throws an average change, along with a slider that he should probably get rid of. He has the potential of a number two starter if his curve reaches its potential, but he is a big project who will need to work on his mechanics.
46) Trevor Williams--RHP--6'3--228--CJr
Williams is average to above average with his three pitch mix, which includes a fastball, slider, and change. His fastball will sit at 90-94 MPH, but his best pitch is his change, which is a plus pitch at times. His slider doesn't have much of an upside, but with a good fastball and potential plus change, Williams could be a good middle to back of the rotation starter in the majors.
47) Garrett Williams--LHP--6'3--185--HS
Williams is a projectable lefty who has already hit 94, but he will mostly sit in the 88-92 range at this point. His curve comes in at 77-78 MPH, and it could also end up as an above average pitch. He has a questionable delivery right now, one that doesn't use much of his lower half. If he improved his delivery, Williams could really ramp up his fastball, making it a plus pitch in the future.
48) Connor Jones--RHP--6'1--190--HS
Jones has a three pitch mix that has nothing that stands out as a plus pitch, with a fastball that reaches 93 with good sinking movement. His slider has good late break on it, but it probably won't be more than slightly above average in the future, with his change being a strictly average pitch. He has good control and good pitchability, making him more polished than most high school pitchers.
49) Cavan Biggio--3B--L/R--6'2--180--HS
Son of the Astro great Craig Biggio, Cavan is a good natural hitter with a chance to add more power in the future as he fills out more. He is currently listed as a third baseman, but he has played other positions, including second base and outfield. He projects best as a second baseman with a below average arm, but his offense should make up for any defensive struggles at second. He has made consistent hard contact against strong competition, keeping the Biggio hitting genes in the family.
50) Rowdy Tellez--1B--L/L--6'4--220--HS
Tellez is a big high school first baseman who has one of the top high school bats in the draft. He has power to all fields, with potential plus plus power to the right field as a lefty hitter. He also could hit for a good average to go along with that power, making him a major threat at the plate. Tellez handles first base well and will be able to focus on his hitting as he develops. He will be a project, but he has the ability to hit 30+ homers with some of the best raw power in the draft.
25 MORE PLAYERS TO KNOW
Ryan Eades--RHP--6'3--193--CJr
Aaron Blair--RHP--6'4--220--CJr
Andrew Mitchell--RHP--6'3--220--CJr
Blake Taylor--LHP--6'3--220--HS
Will Crowe--RHP--6'3--225--HS
Jason Hursh--RHP--6'3--195--College Sophemore
Michael Lorenzen--RHP--6'3--195--CJr
Bobby Wahl--RHP--6'3--200--CJr
Tom Windle--LHP--6'4--215--CJr
Kevin Ziomek--LHP--6'3--200--CJr
Oscar Mercado--SS--R/R--6'2--175--HS
Dylan Covey--RHP--6'2--205--CJr
Alex Balog--RHP--6'6--225--CJr
Corey Knebel--RHP--6'3--210--CJr
Chad Pinder--3B--R/R--6'2--192--CJr
Chris Okey--C--R/R--6'0--179--HS
Colby Suggs--RHP--6'0--225--CJr
Cord Sandberg--OF/1B--L/L--6'2--215--HS
Stephen Tarpley--LHP--6'2--200--JC
Jared King--OF--S/L--6'1--200--CJr
Brian Ragira--1B/OF--R/R--6'2--200--CSr
Zack Collins--C--L/R--6'3--220--HS
Justin Williams--OF--L/R--6'3--215--HS
A.J. Vanegas--RHP--6'3--215--CJr
Hunter Green--LHP--6'2--200--HS
FIRST ROUND ORDER WITH SLOT VALUE
1) Houston Astros--$7,790,400
2) Chicago Cubs--$6,708,400
3) Colorado Rockies--$5,626,400
4) Minnesota Twins--$4,544,400
5) Cleveland Indians--$3,787,000
6) Miami Marlins--$3,516,500
7) Boston Red Sox--$3,246,000
8) Kansas City Royals--$3,137,800
9) Pittsburgh Pirates--$3,029,600
10) Toronto Blue Jays--$2,921,400
11) New York Mets--$2,840,300
12) Seattle Mariners--$2,759,100
13) San Diego Padres--$2,678,000
14) Pittsburgh Pirates--$2,569,800
15) Arizona Diamondbacks--$2,434,500
16) Philadelphia Phillies--$2,299,300
17) Chicago White Sox--$2,164,000
18) Los Angeles Dodgers--$2,109,900
19) St. Louis Cardinals--$2,055,800
20) Detroit Tigers--$2,001,700
21) Tampa Bay Rays--$1,974,700
22) Baltimore Orioles--$1,947,600
23) Texas Rangers--$1,920,600
24) Oakland Athletics--$1,893,500
25) San Francisco Giants--$1,866,500
26) New York Yankees--$1,839,400
27) Cincinnati Reds--$1,812,400
28) St. Louis Cardinals--$1,785,300
29) Tampa Bay Rays--$1,758,300
30) Texas Rangers--$1,731,200
31) Atlanta Braves--$1,704,200
32) New York Yankees--$1,677,100
33) New York Yankees--$1,650,100
Well, there it is. This has been my longest and most in depth project for this site, in terms of length and the amount of research and scouting I had to do to complete it. I hope this is a helpful tool to anyone that is interested in the MLB draft this year. If you would like me to expand on any of the players in the "25 more players to know" section, just ask in the comment section below. If you want to know where I think a player will go in the actual draft or which player I think a team will take, you can also ask in the comment section. I will be live tweeting the draft on Thursday, so you can follow me on twitter @mikemaw45 or @TheFutureGM for any draft updates. Thanks for reading, and let's get excited for the 2013 MLB draft!
Thursday, April 25, 2013
Is the MLB Unfair?
Is America’s pastime unfair? Are some teams at a disadvantage when compared to other teams? Over the years, the MLB has become the most unfair major professional sport in America, and is clearly more favorable to certain teams. There are many causes to these advantages, including the payroll flexibility of teams, the new collective bargaining agreement that limits teams’ abilities to add amateur talent, and the separations of the markets and revenues between teams . Unlike the NHL or NFL, the MLB does not have a salary cap, so teams are basically free to spend whatever they want to acquire talent, unless it’s with amatuer talent. This problem could easily be fixed in the near future, but action is needed from the the MLB itself, especially commissioner Bud Selig. But if the league remains as it is, the MLB will continue to favor teams that have the ability to spend, and leave the rest of the teams trying to catch up.
In 2013, MLB payrolls will total over $3 billion. That’s an average of over $100 million for the 30 teams in the league. Fourteen teams are over that $100 million mark, while nine teams are under $81 million. The New York Yankees, with a payroll of $228,995,945, have the highest payroll in the major leagues. In contrast, the Houston Astros have the lowest payroll at $24,328,538. That’s a separation of $204,667,407, which could fund over eight Astros teams. How can a team like the Astros compete against a team that can pay over $200 million more to players that have proven they can perform? The top five payrolls in the majors are the Yankees at approximately $229.0 million, the Dodgers at $216.3 million, the Phillies at $159.6 million, the Red Sox at $159.0 million, and the Tigers at $149.0 million. The separation between the top five teams and the bottom five is also staggering, with the lowest payrolls being the Astros at $24.3 million, the Marlins at $39.4 million, the Rays at $57.0 million, the Pirates at $66.3 million, and the A’s at $68.6 million. Over the past fifteen years, these separations have been very evident in the World Series matchups. Out of the thirty different teams that have made the World Series in the past fifteen years, twenty six of these teams were in the top fifteen payrolls. Seventeen of those 26 teams were in the top ten payrolls. For the fifteen teams that won the World Series, all but one of them were in the top fifteen payrolls, with nine of those teams being in the top ten. Basically, teams that are in the bottom half of the league in payroll have virtually no chance of winning the World Series title, or even competing for it. Players take notice of this, and pounce on the opportunity to make more money, along with a better chance to win. As a free agent, teams will be much more attractive when they can pay you $20 million a year and give you a great chance at the playoffs this year when opposed to the team that would have trouble offering you $12 million a year, with an outside shot of making the playoffs in a few years. This makes it very hard for smaller market teams to bring in talent to contend, and with the limitations of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, talent acquisition is very difficult for teams that can’t spend the big bucks.
Major League teams can spend any amount of money they want for players, as long as they have the resources to do so, and that has been very evident in the last few years. In 2008, the New York Yankees signed Alex Rodriguez to a ten year, $275 Million extension. In 2012, thirteen different players were making over $20 million. It’s important to note that the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) came into effect during the 2012 season. This new CBA limits teams’ spending ability when they are dealing with amateur talent, whether that be in the draft or in the international player market. With amateur talent, there are now pools in which teams are slotted a specific amount of money that they can spend on a draft pick or international free agent. For example, in the 2012 draft the Houston Astros had a slot amount of $7.2 Million for the first pick, and the New York Yankees had a $1.6 Million slot for the 30th overall selection. If teams exceed these slots, they are harshly punished with taxes and/or loss of a draft pick. If a team exceeds its slot by 5%, it is taxed 75% on the overage. When a team spends 5-10% over its slot amount, it is taxed 75% and loses a first round draft pick, and when they spend 10-15% over slot, they are taxed 100% and lose a first and second round pick. The most severe penalty occurs for anything over 15%, and in this case teams are taxed 100% and lose their next two first round picks. A major example of how the new CBA will limit teams’ ability to acquire amateur talent can be seen with the Pittsburgh Pirates situation in the 2012 draft. Mark Appel, arguably the best talent in the draft, fell to the Pirates, who had the eighth overall selection because of his signing bonus demands. The Pirates had a slot of $2.9 Million for that pick, which is much less than the $7.2 Million slot Appel could’ve received if he went number one overall. The Pirates offered Appel $3.8 Million, the most they could without losing a future first round pick, but he didn’t sign in order to receive more money in the next draft. This is just the first example of the new CBA where a team cannot afford to pay the top available talent in the draft without being penalized. The Los Angeles Angels can spend $240 Million on Albert Pujols without any penalties, but the Pirates can’t spend over $3.8 without being taxed and losing a future first round draft pick. The MLB claimed they tried to even the playing field with the new spending limits in the draft, but teams have never been farther apart. The markets of teams only furthers this separation.
There are thirty different teams in Major League Baseball, meaning there are thirty different markets. A few teams have the same city that they claim as their homes, including the Yankees and Mets in New York, the Cubs and White Sox in Chicago, and the Dodgers and Angels in Los Angeles. Not surprisingly, those are the three biggest cities in the nation population wise. The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Angels are the only teams with media markets over ten million people, with the Los Angeles teams over fifteen million people and the New York teams over twenty million. Ten teams have markets with five to ten million people, six teams have markets between three to five million, and the remaining ten teams have less than three million in their media markets. Out of the last fifteen World Series winners, eleven have been in the top fifteen markets in the league, with eight of those being in the top ten. Only two of the World Series winners came while in the bottom ten markets. Both of those winning teams were the St. Louis Cardinals, meaning only one team in the bottom ten markets in the past fifteen years has won a World Series title. Having a larger market gives MLB teams the opportunity for more revenue, which they can use to add talented and expensive players to their payrolls. The New York Yankees, with the largest market in the majors, had a revenue of $471 Million in 2012, $135 Million more than the Boston Red Sox, the second largest revenue team, and $304 Million more than the Tampa Bay Rays, the team with the lowest payroll. A large portion of these revenues comes from the teams’ TV deals, and no deal will have more of an effect or give a larger advantage than that of the Los Angeles Dodgers. This deal with Time Warner Cable, which was made official in early 2013, will give the Dodgers between $6-7 Billion over the next twenty five years. That means the Dodgers could earn $280 Million per year over that time, and when added to the revenue that comes from ticket sales, stadium advertisements, team apparel sales, and many other sources that generate income, the Dodgers basically have unlimited resources to go and sign players or take on a player’s salary in a trade. Many teams don’t have this luxury of a major TV deal, as at least seven teams receive $20 Million a year or less from their local TV deals. Lower revenue leads to lower resources to obtain quality major league players, and with the large separations in team revenues and proven success of teams who can spend more money, smaller market teams are left looking for ways to stay in competition.
There is a growing disparity between teams in the MLB, and the league has to act on this situation quickly before teams begin to take advantage of the differences on a larger scale than they already have. The league has tried to address this problem recently in the new CBA by evening each team’s chance of acquiring amateur talent, but that has only handicapped the main manner in which small market teams can truly add top-end talent. A simple solution to the problem that the MLB faces can be found in every other major sports league: A salary cap. A salary cap would put a limit on what teams can spend, while giving smaller market teams a chance at signing quality talent for cheaper prices. Teams like the Yankees or Dodgers wouldn’t be able to give multiple players over $20 million a year, so these players would have to lower their price demands, which would allow teams with lesser revenues to jump into the bidding for their services. It would make sense to have a cap around $130-150 Million, as twenty three teams have payrolls below $130 Million, and four teams have payrolls that exceed $150 million. Not only will this salary cap give more teams the ability to add talent through free agency and trades, it will avoid player salary demands from increasing more than they already have. The MLB average player salary in 2012 was at a record $3,440,000, up from the $1,441,406 average in 1998, which is a 139% increase. Also, within this solution the league must lessen the limitations on draft spending. The pools would remain, as it is logical to assume that teams with higher draft picks will spend more money to sign their players. But, the taxes on the overages must be lessened so teams aren’t forced to stray away from drafting the best available talent for economic purposes, as we saw with the Mark Appel situation in the 2012 draft. The team with the first pick, and therefore the highest bonus pools, should be allotted 10% of the league’s salary cap, which would be somewhere between $13-15 Million. Adding a salary cap and lessening draft limitations will not eliminate the advantages larger market teams have over smaller market teams, as teams with larger revenues will still be able to allocate their resources in other ways, including their scouting and player development departments. But, the salary cap and lesser draft limitations will allow more teams to have the opportunity to add and keep talent moving into the future.
As it stands today, Major League Baseball is not a fair league. Teams that are in larger markets use their resources to their advantage by adding expensive players that have proven success, and this has led these teams to win the majority of the World Series titles over the past fifteen years. Large payrolls, the collective bargaining agreement that limits teams’ ability to add amateur talent, and the separation of markets and revenues between teams have led certain teams to gain an advantage over their competitors. These advantages can be limited, however, by simply adding a salary cap and lessing the draft spending limitations. These actions won’t eliminate the problems within the league, but they will give small market teams a chance to add the talent that they couldn’t add in the past. The economic advantages that large market teams are able to enjoy will never go away, but they can be limited, and that will open a world of opportunities to teams that haven’t had the resources to stay in competition.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Trade Analysis: Joel Hanrahan to Boston
After waiting a few days for the deal to be finalized, the Pirates and Red Sox completed a deal that sent closer Joel Hanrahan and infielder Brock Holt to the Red Sox in exchange for OF/1B Jerry Sands, reliever Mark Melancon, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and infielder Ivan DeJesus Jr.
What the Pirates Get:
The Pirates received two players that should definitely be on their major league roster in 2013, another player who has a chance to be on the roster at some point, and a starting pitcher that should start in AA.
The two almost-guaranteed major leaguers are Jerry Sands and Mark Melancon, with DeJesus Jr. most likely starting in AAA and Pimentel starting in the AA rotation.
Jerry Sands: Sands is a player who has had a lot of success at the AAA level, with a career .288/.362/.552 batting line, with 55 home runs and 195 RBI in 822 at bats. Those are fantastic power numbers, but they also are coming from the Pacific Coast League, where traditionally players' power numbers are inflated. Still, 55 homers and 195 RBI in only 822 at bats is very impressive. Sands' strikeout rate is somewhat high at 20.66% in the minors, but he draws a good amount of walks and puts up a good OBP. Defensively, Sands is best suited for right field, where his decent speed and arm would play best. He also plays first base, and has the chance to be an above average defender. Sands should at least get the chance to platoon with Garrett Jones and/or Travis Snider, as he has a .904 OPS against lefties in 79 at bats at the major league level.
Mark Melancon: Melancon has had success at the major league level before, most of it coming in 2011 when he saved 20 games for the Astros. In 2012, he seemingly took a step backwards, posting a 6.20 ERA. But if you look closer, he had good secondary numbers, with a 8.2/2.4 K/BB ratio. The number that really stands out is his 1.60 HR/9 ratio in 2012, far above his career 0.9 number, showing that some bad luck led to his inflated ERA. Melancon has good stuff, with a great two-pitch mix including a mid 90's fastball and plus curveball. He has displayed good control in the past, and the problems he has experienced seem to stem from his mentality.
Ivan DeJesus Jr.: DeJesus is a very similar player to Brock Holt, the prospect the Red Sox received in this deal. They both play middle infield, but both will most likely end up at second base because of defensive problems at shortstop. DeJesus will put up a lower average than Holt, but gets on base at a similar rate and will hit a few more homers. Both will probably steal about 10-15 bases a year as a starter, but both are better served as a good bench player or utility infielder. If I had to choose between the two, I would choose Brock Holt.
Stolmy Pimentel: Pimentel has struggled at the AA level in his age 21 and 22 seasons, with a 5.96 ERA in 166 innings, but has the ability to perform much better. He has shown good control at times and has a decent strikeout rate during his minor league career. His fastball that sits around 92-94, but he struggles to throw the pitch with consistent command. He combines his fastball with a changeup that comes in around 80 MPH, and a slider that ranges anywhere from the mid to high 80's. Both of the pitches have the chance to become plus pitches, with his changeup already rated as plus by some outlets.
What the Red Sox Get:
The Red Sox brought in a guy who has already told that he will be the team's closer in 2013, and a utility infielder that is basically interchangeable with Ivan DeJesus Jr.
Joel Hanrahan: Since he was converted to closer to begin the 2011 season, Joel Hanrahan has been one of the best closers in the majors, becoming a two time All-Star and converting 76 of 84 saves in that time. The Hammer, as he has come to be known, has a power fastball, sitting in the mid-90's, and occasionally reaching 98-99 MPH. Along with that is a plus slider that sits in the upper 80's and induces a lot of swings and misses, making for a great two pitch combo. But, his control disappeared in 2012, going from a 2.1 BB/9 in 2011 to a 5.4 BB/9 in 2012. He was still effective, but not as effective as many may think. His ERA in 2012 was 2.72, but his FIP was 4.45. Still, with the two pitch combo that Hanrahan has, he is a great addition to any team.
Brock Holt: I already covered most of what Holt brings to the table in my analysis of DeJesus. Holt is a middle infielder who should end up at second down the road if ever given an opportunity to start, but is best served as a utility infielder. He has hit for a good average at all levels in the minors, getting on base at a good rate but with no power. He does hit for a lot of doubles, and has good speed on the base paths. In 65 at bats at the major league level in 2012, Holt hit for a .292/.329/.354 line with a .682 OPS.
Who Wins?
Both teams got what they were looking for in this deal. Basically, the deal was really Joel Hanrahan for Jerry Sands, Mark Melancon, and Stolmy Pimentel, as Holt and DeJesus somewhat cancel each other out. So, Boston brought in a proven closer who will sure up the back-end of their bullpen, moving Andrew Bailey into a set-up role. The deal would work more in Boston's favor if they could sign Hanrahan to a few extra years, as he becomes a free agent at the end of the 2013 season.
Pittsburgh acquired a potential average to above average everyday player in Jerry Sands. He has a good deal of power and should be a great platoon option against lefties with a chance to eventually take over everyday duties at first or right field. Pimentel could develop into a number four or five starter, but the real wild card in this deal that could make this a win for the Pirates is Mark Melancon. When the Pirates brought in Hanrahan in 2009, he had a 7.71 ERA, but his secondary numbers showed that he was much better than that. The same situation is present with Melancon in this trade, with a 6.20 ERA but much better secondary numbers. He has a great two pitch mix with his fastball and curveball, not as good as Hanrahan's fastball slider combo, but still very effective. Neal Huntington, the Pirates GM, and pitching coach Ray Searage both have good histories with relievers, making it a better chance that Melancon succeeds for the Pirates.
The Red Sox and the Pirates could both see benefits in this trade. It would be great for the Red Sox if Hanrahan continued to be one of the best closers in the game, and be made even better if they could sign him to a few more years before he hits free agency (judging by this offseason, I would expect a three year deal worth $39 million). The trade could tip in the Pirates favor if Sands becomes an above average everyday player, and even more so if Melancon becomes the next Joel Hanrahan, which he has the potential to do with his new team.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter
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