The Texas Rangers have agreed upon a deal to acquire starting pitcher Matt Garza from the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs received a hefty return from the Rangers in the trade, receiving 3B Mike Olt, RHP C.J. Edwards, and RHP Justin Grimm, plus two players to be named later according to the Cubs' official twitter page. Garza was considered the top starting pitcher on the trade market, as he is in the middle of possibly the best season of his career with a 3.17 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The Rangers were reportedly close to a deal with Garza a few days ago, but now the deal has officially been agreed upon. Let's take a closer look at what both teams are receiving in the trade.
What The Rangers Get:
The Rangers receive starting pitcher Matt Garza in this acquisition. Garza has been having a very good season, with a 3.17 ERA, a number that would be the best of his career if the season ended today. His xFIP is at 3.85, so he should be able to continue pitching at a similar level to what he has been this year, maybe with a slight regression. A major thing to consider in this deal is that the Rangers are only receiving Matt Garza for the remainder of this season, as he is in his final year of arbitration and is due to hit free agency after the season ends. The Rangers could attempt to sign him to an extension, but it is more likely that Garza will test free agency.
Garza has a 1.5 WAR this year (according to Baseball-Reference), which would make him the third most valuable starting pitcher for the Rangers, behind Derek Holland and and Yu Darvish. His WAR would be higher than what it is now, but he has only made eleven starts due to injury. Garza has a good fastball that will sit in the low to mid 90's, hitting as high as 96, and with an average velocity of 92.8 MPH. He also has a great slider that opposing hitters are only hitting .179 against this year.
Overall, Garza will be a good number three starter for the remainder of the year for the Rangers, projected by ZiPS to have a 3.76 ERA and 0.7 WAR from here on out. The Rangers will have a good trio of starters now with Holland, Darvish, and Garza, along with young pitcher Martin Perez.
What The Cubs Get:
The Cubs are getting a pretty big haul for two months of Matt Garza, including 3B Mike Olt, RHP C.J. Edwards, and RHP Justin Grimm. Mike Olt could provide an offensive boost for the Cubs at some point this season, and Justin Grimm could step right into the major league rotation for the Cubs.
Mike Olt: Olt came into the season ranked as the 22nd best prospect in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB.com. In 354 at bats in AA during the 2012 season, Olt hit .288 with 28 home runs and a .977 OPS. He also saw some major league time, but didn't do very well. In his age 24 season in 2013 Olt moved up to AAA, where he has really struggled to this point, with a line of .213/.317/.422 in 230 at bats, along with 11 home runs and a .739 OPS. Olt still has some of the best power in the minor leagues, and a good approach at the plate. He's good defensively at third, where he isn't blocked in the organization like he was with Texas, who had Adrian Beltre as their third baseman. Olt has the potential to hit 30+ homers a year in the future, along with a decent average. He has a long swing and will strike out a good amount, but his power should make up for that. Despite his struggles this year, Olt ranks #44 in Baseball America's mid season prospect rankings, and would rank fourth in the Cubs system. Luis Valbuena has a 104 OPS+ (100 being average) for the Cubs this year, so the team should keep Olt down in AAA for the remainder of the season to work on his struggles, with a chance to be the everyday starter at third to start the 2014 season.
C.J. Edwards: At 21 years old, Edwards was the #14 prospect in the Rangers system coming into this season according to Baseball America, which is very respectable considering he was a 48th round draft pick in 2011. Edwards wasn't scouted much in high school, but the Rangers development system has done wonders for him in his time with the organization. He had a 1.48 ERA in 67 innings across rookie ball and short season A ball. This season, he has been just as good with a 1.83 ERA, along with a 11.8 K/9 rate in 93.1 IP at low-A Hickory. A very impressive stat is that he has yet to allow a home run in his 160.1 IP as a pro. Edwards has a fastball that sits 90-94, but has reached 98. He could easily add velocity to that, as he has a very projectable frame (6'2, 155 lb). He has potential for two average to above average off speed pitches in his curve and change. He has middle of the rotation upside, and could reach the majors as soon as 2015 if he continues developing like he has.
Justin Grimm: Grimm has spent most of his time this year in the Rangers major league rotation, though he has struggled heavily. He has a 6.37 ERA in 17 starts, although his xFIP of 4.25 would suggest that he has really pitched better than what his ERA leads us to believe. He doesn't overpower hitters with his fastball, with an average velocity of 91.4 this year, and that pitch generally sits in the 91-94 range. He has an above average 12-6 curve that hitters has held opposing hitters to a .245 average this year, along with a decent change and slider. With Garza no longer in the rotation, it would make sense for Grimm to immediately step in and take Garza's spot. He is only 24 years old and was ranked the fifth best prospect in the Rangers system coming into the year, so he should get every chance to work on his struggles at the major league level.
The Cubs are also receiving two players to be named later in this deal, so they are getting a total of five players for Matt Garza.
Trade Analysis
This trade looks like a pretty clear win for the Cubs, who are receiving one of the top prospects in the game with Olt, along with a possible B grade pitching prospect in Edwards, and a major league rotation option in Grimm. That is a huge package of prospects for two months of Matt Garza, and the only way this deal will work for the Rangers is if they make a deep run in the playoffs, where they are currently 1.5 games behind the Orioles for the second wild card spot, and three games behind the A's in the AL West. This deal could also improve for the Rangers if they could sign the 29 year old Garza to an extension before he hits free agency at the end of the season, which could cost them upwards of $15 million a year. The return the Cubs received for Garza could begin paying dividends to the major league club right away, with Grimm stepping into the rotation and Olt possibly taking over at third as soon as September.
Any time an organization receives two quality prospects and a young pitcher that can contribute to a major league rotation in exchange for two months of a number three starter that would be lost in free agency anyway, it counts as a win for that organization, the Cubs in this case. That doesn't mean this is a total loss for the Rangers, as their team now has a more solidified rotation that should give them a better chance for a postseason spot. Still, that was quite a large package of prospects for a two month rental, leading me to believe that the Rangers think they can sign Garza to that extension. If the Rangers don't go far into the postseason this year and don't sign Garza to a long term deal, this will be a very forgettable trade for the organization, and a memorable one for the Cubs.
I would like to take this opportunity to commend the job Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have done with the Cubs in the time since they took over in October of 2011. Epstein really knows how to build an organization and develop players well, along with getting the maximum return in his acquisitions (i.e. Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner). The front office has really set up the team to be very competitive in the NL Central in the coming years. With the return in the Garza trade, the Cubs look like they could have a formidable lineup in a few years. Let's look at their potential 2017 lineup and rotation (constructed from players already in the organization).
1 SP: Travis Wood
2 SP: Justin Grimm
3 SP: C.J. Edwards
4 SP: Jeff Samardzija
5 SP: Pierce Johnson
1) Albert Almora-CF
2) Javier Baez-2B
3) Jorge Soler-RF
4) Kris Bryant-LF
5) Mike Olt-3B
6) Anthony Rizzo-1B
7) Starlin Castro-SS
8) Wellington Castillo-C
That could end up being the strongest lineup in the division, if not the league, if all those guys reach their potential, with five guys that could easily hit over 20 home runs a year. That's pretty scary for the rest of the NL.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
No comments:
Post a Comment